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Weather Report with Phil Thomas

A cool start . . .  but will it snow?

Posted on November 28 2013 at 12:05:44 0 comments

Dec 2010

Alvechurch amateur weatherman Phil Thomas records the changes.

November started quite mild and wet, with most of the month’s rainfall falling in the first 14 days.

Then things cooled down and towards the end of the month it was much colder with regular night frosts.

Rainfall was generally around normal, with slightly above average sunshine.

November 2013 (to 27th)
Mean Max   9.4C 0.4 below average
Mean Min   2.6C 1.0 below average
Mean         6.0C 0.8 below average
Rainfall   70.1mm   90% of average
Sunshine   69.2 hrs 109% of average

October had been very wet, with rain observed on 24 days. The monthly total of 166.1mm was 184% of the 23-year local mean.

The rainfall total of 166.1mm was the second wettest recorded over this 23-year period, only surpassed by July 2007.

Sunshine was lower than normal with 76% of the monthly mean. Temperatures were exceptionally mild, averaging 2.2C above the long-term local mean.

October 2013
Mean Max   15.3C 1.4 above average
Mean Min   9.3C   2.9 above average
Mean       12.3C   2.2 above average
Rainfall   166.1mm 184% of average
Sunshine   70.2 hrs 76% of average

Outlook for winter
As usual it is virtually impossible to guess for the entire winter period. It seems that December will start with a cold period, becoming a little more changeable towards Christmas.

With temperatures getting lower it is difficult to know how much snowfall, if any, we will get. Into the new year there are no clear signs available on the computer models.

December 2010 revisited
Some notes I made relating to that month: A record-breaking month in many ways. The lowest screen temperature of -13.7C on 20th broke my previous record by more than 5C (Feb 1991), and we also had the lowest grass min (-17.8C) since the same period for any month.

Also the lowest daytime screen max of -3.6C on the 19th, breaking the previous by 2C (Dec 1994). There were 11 ice days in the month, more than have occurred locally in the past 10 years, including a run of 5 ice days (18th–22nd).

The monthly mean of -0.6C was the coldest in my 20-year history, and on the 22nd there was also the deepest snow measured (26cm of powder snow) in this site’s 20-year history.

WILL IT HAPPEN AGAIN?
The chances are very remote – months with these extremes occur only about once every 30 to 40 years. But it is 51 years since the very cold winter of 1962–63. . .

More information at http://www.alvechurchweather.metsite.com 

You can now see an improved HD weather-cam, updated at one-minute intervals, at: http://www.alvechurchweather.metsite.com/webcam_alvechurch.php

Pictured above: Looking up Newbourne Hill towards Rowney Green in December 2010.

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