Weather Report with Phil Thomas

Where are the winter chills?

Posted on December 23 2015 at 1:39:43 0 comments

Snowy Alvechurch

Alvechurch amateur weatherman Phil Thomas records the changes.

December was very mild toward the middle of the month, with average temperatures 4.9C above the local mean.

This is one of the warmest first halves for December in the Midlands (Central England Temperature) series. This temperature is taken from a number of weather stations in the Midlands area with records back to 1772.

The mild weather is mostly due to a south or south-westerly airstream bringing dull mild grey days. If the present trend continues then December is set to be one of the mildest for many years.

December 2015 (to the 14th)
Mean Max   12.0C 4.9 above average
Mean Min   6.4C   4.9 above average
Mean       9.2C   4.9 above average
Rainfall     35.0mm   51% of average
Sunshine 19.1 hours 39% of average

November was also a very mild month with a mean temperature of 9.5C, which is 2.8 above the local mean. November was the warmest (mean temperature) over the 25 years at my site.

Sunshine was only 39.2 hours, just 62% of the mean, and rainfall near average at 88.1mm – that’s 113% of the 25-year average at my site.

November 2015
Mean Max   12.1C   2.3 above average
Mean Min   6.9C   3.3 above average
Mean       9.5C   2.8 above average
Rainfall   88.1mm   113% of average
Sunshine 39.2 hours 62% of average

Autumn Averages & Means
Mean Max   14.6C   0.7 above average
Mean Min   7.6C   0.9 above average
Mean       11.0C   0.8 above average
Rainfall   175.4mm   77% of average
Sunshine 287.6 hrs 102% of average

The unsettled weather of the past six weeks or so seems to be set for the future. Computer models still keep the Jet Stream as it has been since the beginning of November with a colder air stream to the north and milder conditions to the south. 

If the Jet Stream gets diverted further south, then snow would be a possibility, but this would require a change in which the high pressure systems take up residence. With a large high pressure system near the Azores, we seem to be set for little rapid change.

Snow is normal in January, so it’s not out of the question that we should get some during the month.

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